Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Evan Dunham
Rodrigo Damm
70%
30%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
33
Age
Δ 2y
35
18-10-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
13-10
L3
Current streak
L2
11
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dunham: 152 sig / 1 TD ·
Damm: 47 sig / 0 TD
Evan Dunham
Rodrigo Damm
65
Sig strikes landed
57
168
Sig strikes attempted
135
85
Total strikes landed
69
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
153s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Evan Dunham
18-10-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
L
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
L2
Rodrigo Damm
13-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
L
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—