Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kyoji Horiguchi
Louis Gaudinot
97%
3%
Why
63"
Reach
63"
24
Age
Δ 6y
30
37-5
Career record
Δ 21 pp
8-4
W3
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Horiguchi: 44 sig / 1 TD ·
Gaudinot: 23 sig / 0 TD
Kyoji Horiguchi
Louis Gaudinot
53
Sig strikes landed
20
103
Sig strikes attempted
65
74
Total strikes landed
27
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.50
Knockdowns
-0.10
197s
Control time
47s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Kyoji Horiguchi
"Karate Kid"
37-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
Blue corner
L1
Louis Gaudinot
"Goodnight"
8-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—