Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Brad Tavares
Nate Marquardt
53%
47%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
27
Age
Δ 9y
36
21-14
Career record
Δ 3 pp
36-19-2
L2
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tavares: 50 sig / 1 TD ·
Marquardt: 30 sig / 0 TD
Brad Tavares
Nate Marquardt
34
Sig strikes landed
26
77
Sig strikes attempted
60
55
Total strikes landed
37
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
158s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Brad Tavares
21-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
Blue corner
W1
Nate Marquardt
"The Great"
36-19-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
L
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
L
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—