Prelims1
Bantamweight
Urijah Faber vs Francisco Rivera
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Urijah Faber
Francisco Rivera
89%
11%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
36
Age
Δ 2y
33
36-11
Career record
Δ 19 pp
11-8
W1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Faber: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Rivera: 15 sig / 0 TD
Urijah Faber
Francisco Rivera
51
Sig strikes landed
43
110
Sig strikes attempted
101
70
Total strikes landed
47
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.1
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
217s
Control time
18s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Urijah Faber
"The California Kid"
36-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
Blue corner
L1
Francisco Rivera
"Cisco"
11-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—