Main
Lightweight
Tony Ferguson vs Abel Trujillo
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
Abel Trujillo
75%
25%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
27-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
16-8
W3
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Ferguson: 20 sig / 1 TD ·
Trujillo: 15 sig / 2 TD
Tony Ferguson
Abel Trujillo
41
Sig strikes landed
29
103
Sig strikes attempted
74
54
Total strikes landed
39
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
44s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
27-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
W2
Abel Trujillo
"Killa"
16-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—