Prelims2
Bantamweight
Sergio Pettis vs Matt Hobar
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sergio Pettis
Matt Hobar
75%
25%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
21
Age
Δ 7y
28
19-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
10-3
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pettis: 78 sig / 0 TD ·
Hobar: 36 sig / 2 TD
Sergio Pettis
Matt Hobar
44
Sig strikes landed
44
110
Sig strikes attempted
106
75
Total strikes landed
64
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
5.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
151s
Control time
192s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sergio Pettis
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
Blue corner
W1
Matt Hobar
"The Crowbar"
10-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—