Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Raquel Pennington vs Ashlee Evans-Smith
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Raquel Pennington
Ashlee Evans-Smith
71%
29%
Why
68"
Reach
68"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Pennington: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Evans-Smith: 11 sig / 1 TD
Raquel Pennington
Ashlee Evans-Smith
51
Sig strikes landed
44
96
Sig strikes attempted
101
83
Total strikes landed
76
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
187s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Raquel Pennington
"Rocky"
16-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
Blue corner
Ashlee Evans-Smith
"Rebel Girl"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27