Prelims2
Featherweight
Alex White vs Clay Collard
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Alex White
Clay Collard
45%
55%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
26
Age
Δ 4y
22
13-7
Career record
Δ 1 pp
14-8
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
White: 58 sig / 1 TD ·
Collard: 60 sig / 3 TD
Alex White
Clay Collard
54
Sig strikes landed
42
127
Sig strikes attempted
121
62
Total strikes landed
64
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
70s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alex White
"The Spartan"
13-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
L1
Clay Collard
"Cassius"
14-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—