🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Anthony Pettis vs Gilbert Melendez
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anthony Pettis
Gilbert Melendez
70%
30%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
25-10
Career record
Δ 3 pp
23-8
W4
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Pettis: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Melendez: 27 sig / 1 TD
Anthony Pettis
Gilbert Melendez
61
Sig strikes landed
39
153
Sig strikes attempted
120
64
Total strikes landed
66
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
98s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
25-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
W1
Gilbert Melendez
"El Nino"
23-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—