🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Johny Hendricks vs Robbie Lawler
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Johny Hendricks
Robbie Lawler
57%
43%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
19-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
31-16
W1
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Hendricks: 111 sig / 5 TD ·
Lawler: 116 sig / 0 TD
Johny Hendricks
Robbie Lawler
77
Sig strikes landed
75
192
Sig strikes attempted
169
85
Total strikes landed
90
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.2
7.3
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
209s
Control time
35s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
Blue corner
W2
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
31-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—