Back to UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
Prelims1 Featherweight

Gabriel Benitez vs Humberto Brown Morrison

UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt ·Arena CDMX
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Gabriel Benitez
Humberto Brown Morrison
93% 7%
Why
26
Age
Δ 4y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Benitez: 23 sig / 0 TD · Brown Morrison: 18 sig / 1 TD
Gabriel Benitez
Humberto Brown Morrison
42
Sig strikes landed
32
98
Sig strikes attempted
87
62
Total strikes landed
46
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
154s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Gabriel Benitez

"Moggly"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
Blue corner

Humberto Brown Morrison

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Age
30