Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Augusto Montano
Chris Heatherly
69%
31%
Why
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Montano: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Heatherly: 8 sig / 1 TD
Augusto Montano
Chris Heatherly
30
Sig strikes landed
18
51
Sig strikes attempted
34
56
Total strikes landed
32
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
141s
Control time
301s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Augusto Montano
"Dodger"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
L1
Chris Heatherly
"Stump"
9-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
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