Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Edgar Garcia
Hector Urbina
57%
43%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
31
Age
Δ 4y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Garcia: 12 sig / 2 TD ·
Urbina: 4 sig / 0 TD
Edgar Garcia
Hector Urbina
36
Sig strikes landed
41
74
Sig strikes attempted
86
50
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
141s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Edgar Garcia
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Hector Urbina
"El Toro"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27