Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yair Rodriguez
Leonardo Morales
78%
22%
Why
22
Age
Δ 0y
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rodriguez: 34 sig / 2 TD ·
Morales: 33 sig / 0 TD
Yair Rodriguez
Leonardo Morales
41
Sig strikes landed
28
84
Sig strikes attempted
62
59
Total strikes landed
39
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
166s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Yair Rodriguez
"El Pantera"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
Blue corner
Leonardo Morales
"Chimy"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22