Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jake Ellenberger
Kelvin Gastelum
60%
40%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
30
Age
Δ 6y
23
31-16
Career record
Δ 1 pp
22-11
L2
Current streak
W4
11
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Ellenberger: 10 sig / 1 TD ·
Gastelum: 16 sig / 1 TD
Jake Ellenberger
Kelvin Gastelum
30
Sig strikes landed
36
80
Sig strikes attempted
88
36
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
101s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
Blue corner
W4
Kelvin Gastelum
22-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—