Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Fabricio Werdum
Mark Hunt
92%
8%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
37
Age
Δ 3y
41
25-9-1
Career record
Δ 23 pp
14-14-1
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Werdum: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Hunt: 10 sig / 1 TD
Fabricio Werdum
Mark Hunt
61
Sig strikes landed
36
101
Sig strikes attempted
96
76
Total strikes landed
36
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
124s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
25-9-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
Blue corner
W1
Mark Hunt
"Super Samoan"
14-14-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
8 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—