Back to UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine
Prelims2 Welterweight

Albert Tumenov vs Matt Dwyer

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine ·Scotiabank Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Albert Tumenov
Matt Dwyer
76% 24%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
23
Age
Δ 2y
25
W1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tumenov: 4 sig / 0 TD · Dwyer: 0 sig / 0 TD
Albert Tumenov
Matt Dwyer
30
Sig strikes landed
26
70
Sig strikes attempted
56
48
Total strikes landed
40
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
147s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Albert Tumenov

"Einstein"
19-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
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L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
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Blue corner

Matt Dwyer

0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25