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Prelims1 Flyweight

Paddy Holohan vs Chris Kelades

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine ·Scotiabank Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Paddy Holohan
Chris Kelades
75% 25%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
26
Age
Δ 7y
34
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Holohan: 26 sig / 3 TD · Kelades: 50 sig / 2 TD
Paddy Holohan
Chris Kelades
26
Sig strikes landed
20
72
Sig strikes attempted
38
46
Total strikes landed
26
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
164s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Paddy Holohan

"The Hooligan"
13-2-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
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Blue corner

Chris Kelades

"The Greek Assassin"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34