Prelims1
Lightweight
Jason Saggo vs Paul Felder
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine
·Scotiabank Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jason Saggo
Paul Felder
52%
48%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
29
Age
Δ 2y
30
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Saggo: 29 sig / 6 TD ·
Felder: 51 sig / 1 TD
Jason Saggo
Paul Felder
26
Sig strikes landed
26
61
Sig strikes attempted
60
43
Total strikes landed
37
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.8
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
218s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jason Saggo
13-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
Blue corner
Paul Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30