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Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Jake Lindsey

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine ·Scotiabank Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Jake Lindsey
66% 34%
Why
26
Age
Δ 3y
28
11-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
12-8
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Aubin-Mercier: 31 sig / 2 TD · Lindsey: 24 sig / 1 TD
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Jake Lindsey
47
Sig strikes landed
49
106
Sig strikes attempted
103
63
Total strikes landed
67
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
171s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

"The Canadian Gangster"
11-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
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Blue corner
L1

Jake Lindsey

"The Librarian"
12-8
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
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