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Mitch Gagnon vs Roman Salazar

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine ·Scotiabank Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Mitch Gagnon
Roman Salazar
60% 40%
Why
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
W3
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gagnon: 5 sig / 1 TD · Salazar: 3 sig / 0 TD
Mitch Gagnon
Roman Salazar
29
Sig strikes landed
27
56
Sig strikes attempted
62
47
Total strikes landed
39
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
148s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Mitch Gagnon

13-5
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
W UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
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W UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
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L UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
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Blue corner

Roman Salazar

"El Gallito"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27