Back to UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
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Gilbert Burns vs Christos Giagos

UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 ·Ginasio do Maracanazinho
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Gilbert Burns
Christos Giagos
59% 41%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
28
Age
Δ 4y
25
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Burns: 7 sig / 1 TD · Giagos: 4 sig / 0 TD
Gilbert Burns
Christos Giagos
39
Sig strikes landed
41
105
Sig strikes attempted
99
61
Total strikes landed
53
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.1
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
226s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Gilbert Burns

"Durinho"
23-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
Blue corner

Christos Giagos

"The Spartan"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25