Prelims1
Featherweight
Felipe Arantes vs Andre Fili
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
·Ginasio do Maracanazinho
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Felipe Arantes
Andre Fili
41%
59%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
27
Age
Δ 2y
24
19-10-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
25-14
W1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Arantes: 29 sig / 3 TD ·
Fili: 42 sig / 5 TD
Felipe Arantes
Andre Fili
43
Sig strikes landed
49
95
Sig strikes attempted
114
58
Total strikes landed
73
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
208s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Felipe Arantes
"Sertanejo"
19-10-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
D
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
Blue corner
L1
Andre Fili
"Touchy"
25-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—