Prelims2
Lightweight
Fabricio Camoes vs Anthony Rocco Martin
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
·Ginasio do Maracanazinho
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Fabricio Camoes
Anthony Rocco Martin
23%
77%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
36
Age
Δ 11y
25
14-10-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
17-7
L2
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Camoes: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Martin: 1 sig / 1 TD
Fabricio Camoes
Anthony Rocco Martin
25
Sig strikes landed
29
53
Sig strikes attempted
57
48
Total strikes landed
54
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
166s
Control time
214s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Fabricio Camoes
"Morango"
14-10-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
L2
Anthony Rocco Martin
17-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—