Main
Featherweight
Darren Elkins vs Lucas Martins
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
·Ginasio do Maracanazinho
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Darren Elkins
Lucas Martins
51%
49%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
29-13
Career record
Δ 18 pp
20-3
L1
Current streak
W3
10
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Elkins: 47 sig / 1 TD ·
Martins: 26 sig / 0 TD
Darren Elkins
Lucas Martins
28
Sig strikes landed
38
79
Sig strikes attempted
93
43
Total strikes landed
48
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.0
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
152s
Control time
40s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
Blue corner
W3
Lucas Martins
"Mineiro"
20-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—