Prelims1
Welterweight
William Macario vs Neil Magny
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
·Ginasio do Maracanazinho
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
William Macario
Neil Magny
38%
62%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
80"
23
Age
Δ 4y
27
10-3
Career record
Δ 9 pp
32-15
W1
Current streak
W4
2
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Macario: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Magny: 65 sig / 2 TD
William Macario
Neil Magny
39
Sig strikes landed
49
76
Sig strikes attempted
117
57
Total strikes landed
71
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.1
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
84s
Control time
188s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
William Macario
"Patolino"
10-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
Blue corner
W4
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—