Back to UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
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Yan Cabral vs Naoyuki Kotani

UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 ·Ginasio do Maracanazinho
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Yan Cabral
Naoyuki Kotani
50% 50%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 6"
66"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
13-4
Career record
Δ 16 pp
34-15-7
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Cabral: 11 sig / 2 TD · Kotani: 5 sig / 1 TD
Yan Cabral
Naoyuki Kotani
31
Sig strikes landed
14
54
Sig strikes attempted
45
54
Total strikes landed
37
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.4
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
216s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
44%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Yan Cabral

13-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
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Blue corner
L1

Naoyuki Kotani

34-15-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—