Main
Featherweight
Niklas Backstrom vs Mike Wilkinson
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
·Ericsson Globe
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Niklas Backstrom
Mike Wilkinson
69%
31%
Why
25
Age
Δ 2y
27
12-3
Career record
Δ 16 pp
9-5
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Backstrom: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Wilkinson: 6 sig / 0 TD
Niklas Backstrom
Mike Wilkinson
31
Sig strikes landed
20
73
Sig strikes attempted
51
51
Total strikes landed
35
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
138s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Niklas Backstrom
12-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
Blue corner
L1
Mike Wilkinson
"The Warrior"
9-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
W
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—