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Iuri Alcantara vs Russell Doane

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski ·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Iuri Alcantara
Russell Doane
82% 18%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
34
Age
Δ 6y
28
36-10
Career record
Δ 12 pp
16-8
W2
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alcantara: 27 sig / 2 TD · Doane: 14 sig / 6 TD
Iuri Alcantara
Russell Doane
27
Sig strikes landed
25
60
Sig strikes attempted
62
40
Total strikes landed
48
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.3
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
74s
Control time
185s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Iuri Alcantara

"Marajo"
36-10 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 8 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
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W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
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L UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
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W UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
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L UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
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Blue corner
W2

Russell Doane

16-8
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
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W UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
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