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Main Welterweight

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Wendell Oliveira Marques

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski ·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Wendell Oliveira Marques
70% 30%
Why
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ponzinibbio: 10 sig / 0 TD · Oliveira Marques: 8 sig / 0 TD
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Wendell Oliveira Marques
31
Sig strikes landed
35
82
Sig strikes attempted
71
43
Total strikes landed
50
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
83s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Santiago Ponzinibbio

"Argentine Dagger"
31-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
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Blue corner

Wendell Oliveira Marques

"The Machine"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31