Prelims1
Lightweight
Francisco Trinaldo vs Leandro Silva
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski
·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Francisco Trinaldo
Leandro Silva
58%
42%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
36
Age
Δ 7y
29
28-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
20-7-1
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Trinaldo: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Silva: 26 sig / 4 TD
Francisco Trinaldo
Leandro Silva
29
Sig strikes landed
41
62
Sig strikes attempted
80
43
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
137s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
28-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
Blue corner
L1
Leandro Silva
"Buscape"
20-7-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—