Prelims1
Welterweight
Paulo Thiago vs Sean Spencer
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski
·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Paulo Thiago
Sean Spencer
52%
48%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
34
Age
Δ 6y
27
18-10
Career record
Δ 1 pp
12-7
L2
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thiago: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Spencer: 63 sig / 1 TD
Paulo Thiago
Sean Spencer
46
Sig strikes landed
41
117
Sig strikes attempted
118
57
Total strikes landed
60
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
135s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
79%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Paulo Thiago
18-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 3-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
Blue corner
L1
Sean Spencer
"Black Magic"
12-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—