Prelims1
Welterweight
Igor Araujo vs George Sullivan
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski
·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Igor Araujo
George Sullivan
74%
26%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
34
Age
Δ 0y
34
26-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-7
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Araujo: 8 sig / 2 TD ·
Sullivan: 43 sig / 1 TD
Igor Araujo
George Sullivan
40
Sig strikes landed
34
98
Sig strikes attempted
96
55
Total strikes landed
58
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
178s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Igor Araujo
26-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
Blue corner
W1
George Sullivan
"The Silencer"
18-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—