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Prelims1 Featherweight

Godofredo Pepey vs Dashon Johnson

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski ·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Godofredo Pepey
Dashon Johnson
59% 41%
Why
27
Age
Δ 1y
27
14-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
9-3
W1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Pepey: 8 sig / 0 TD · Johnson: 7 sig / 1 TD
Godofredo Pepey
Dashon Johnson
24
Sig strikes landed
21
44
Sig strikes attempted
30
46
Total strikes landed
31
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
170s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
38%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Godofredo Pepey

14-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
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L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
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L UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
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W UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
L UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
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Blue corner
L1

Dashon Johnson

"Flyboy"
9-3
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
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