Main
Lightweight
Donald Cerrone vs Eddie Alvarez
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Eddie Alvarez
48%
52%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
W4
Current streak
—
14
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cerrone: 88 sig / 0 TD ·
Alvarez: 48 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Eddie Alvarez
50
Sig strikes landed
41
116
Sig strikes attempted
82
58
Total strikes landed
56
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
61s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
14 fights · 11-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
Blue corner
Eddie Alvarez
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31