🏆 Title fight
Main
Flyweight
Demetrious Johnson vs Chris Cariaso
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Demetrious Johnson
Chris Cariaso
93%
7%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
28-3-1
Career record
Δ 18 pp
18-8
W6
Current streak
W3
10
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Johnson: 27 sig / 1 TD ·
Cariaso: 6 sig / 0 TD
Demetrious Johnson
Chris Cariaso
85
Sig strikes landed
44
168
Sig strikes attempted
132
121
Total strikes landed
69
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
288s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Demetrious Johnson
"Mighty Mouse"
28-3-1
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
10 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
W3
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
18-8
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—