Main
Featherweight
Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Conor McGregor
71%
29%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
26
Age
Δ 0y
26
31-10
Career record
Δ 4 pp
23-6
W3
Current streak
W3
10
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Poirier: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
McGregor: 9 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Poirier
Conor McGregor
42
Sig strikes landed
33
94
Sig strikes attempted
94
56
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.0
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
111s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
Blue corner
W3
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
23-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—