Prelims1
Lightweight
Jorge Masvidal vs James Krause
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jorge Masvidal
James Krause
52%
48%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
36-17
Career record
Δ 8 pp
29-9
W2
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Masvidal: 69 sig / 2 TD ·
Krause: 58 sig / 0 TD
Jorge Masvidal
James Krause
45
Sig strikes landed
43
102
Sig strikes attempted
112
66
Total strikes landed
61
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
177s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
36-17
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
W1
James Krause
"The"
29-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—