Prelims1
Bantamweight
Dominick Cruz vs Takeya Mizugaki
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dominick Cruz
Takeya Mizugaki
80%
20%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
25-4
Career record
Δ 23 pp
22-11-2
W2
Current streak
W5
2
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cruz: 26 sig / 2 TD ·
Mizugaki: 2 sig / 0 TD
Dominick Cruz
Takeya Mizugaki
57
Sig strikes landed
57
144
Sig strikes attempted
150
79
Total strikes landed
81
2.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
7.3
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
185s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Dominick Cruz
"The Dominator"
25-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
Blue corner
W5
Takeya Mizugaki
22-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—