Prelims1
Welterweight
Patrick Cote vs Stephen Thompson
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Patrick Cote
Stephen Thompson
55%
45%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
35
Age
Δ 3y
32
24-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-9-1
W3
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cote: 53 sig / 0 TD ·
Thompson: 64 sig / 0 TD
Patrick Cote
Stephen Thompson
34
Sig strikes landed
46
76
Sig strikes attempted
99
49
Total strikes landed
58
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
109s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Patrick Cote
"The Predator"
24-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
W3
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
18-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—