Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Tuck
Kevin Lee
31%
69%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
30
Age
Δ 8y
22
11-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
19-8
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tuck: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Lee: 74 sig / 4 TD
Jon Tuck
Kevin Lee
46
Sig strikes landed
48
107
Sig strikes attempted
125
71
Total strikes landed
74
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.0
4.7
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
151s
Control time
215s
Method
Decision
86%
KO/TKO
8%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jon Tuck
"Super Saiyan"
11-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
Blue corner
W1
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—