Prelims1
Welterweight
John Howard vs Brian Ebersole
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Howard
Brian Ebersole
14%
86%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
24-14
Career record
Δ 9 pp
51-19-1
L1
Current streak
L2
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Howard: 42 sig / 2 TD ·
Ebersole: 49 sig / 1 TD
John Howard
Brian Ebersole
26
Sig strikes landed
27
49
Sig strikes attempted
64
46
Total strikes landed
55
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.5
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
127s
Control time
200s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
John Howard
"Doomsday"
24-14
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
Blue corner
L2
Brian Ebersole
"Bad Boy"
51-19-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—