Prelims2
Bantamweight
Manvel Gamburyan vs Cody Gibson
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Manvel Gamburyan
Cody Gibson
30%
70%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
33
Age
Δ 6y
27
15-11
Career record
Δ 8 pp
23-12
L1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Gamburyan: 11 sig / 2 TD ·
Gibson: 49 sig / 1 TD
Manvel Gamburyan
Cody Gibson
25
Sig strikes landed
31
52
Sig strikes attempted
78
40
Total strikes landed
56
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
169s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Manvel Gamburyan
"The Anvil"
15-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
Blue corner
W1
Cody Gibson
"The Renegade"
23-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
L
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—