Back to UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Main Middleweight

Tim Kennedy vs Yoel Romero

UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso ·MGM Grand Garden Arena

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Tim Kennedy
Yoel Romero
72% 28%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
35
Age
Δ 2y
37
19-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
14-5
W3
Current streak
W4
3
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Kennedy: 30 sig / 0 TD · Romero: 39 sig / 3 TD
Tim Kennedy
Yoel Romero
31
Sig strikes landed
30
74
Sig strikes attempted
63
50
Total strikes landed
39
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.6
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
154s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Tim Kennedy

19-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
W UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
W UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
Blue corner
W4

Yoel Romero

"Soldier of God"
14-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database 4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
W UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
W UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
W UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…