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Main Women's Bantamweight

Cat Zingano vs Amanda Nunes

UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso ·MGM Grand Garden Arena

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Cat Zingano
Amanda Nunes
27% 73%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
11-4
Career record
Δ 9 pp
24-5
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Zingano: 40 sig / 3 TD · Nunes: 22 sig / 1 TD
Cat Zingano
Amanda Nunes
18
Sig strikes landed
22
34
Sig strikes attempted
48
39
Total strikes landed
53
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.3
2.8
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
240s
Control time
226s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
45%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Cat Zingano

"Alpha"
11-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
Blue corner
W2

Amanda Nunes

"The Lioness"
24-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
W UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung