Prelims1
Flyweight
John Moraga vs Justin Scoggins
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi
·Foxwoods Resort Casino
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
John Moraga
Justin Scoggins
53%
47%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
30
Age
Δ 8y
22
19-8
Career record
Δ 6 pp
11-6
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Moraga: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Scoggins: 13 sig / 3 TD
John Moraga
Justin Scoggins
23
Sig strikes landed
33
49
Sig strikes attempted
71
41
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.8
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
131s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
John Moraga
19-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
Blue corner
L1
Justin Scoggins
11-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—