Main
Lightweight
Joe Lauzon vs Michael Chiesa
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi
·Foxwoods Resort Casino
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Joe Lauzon
Michael Chiesa
46%
54%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
30
Age
Δ 4y
27
29-16
Career record
Δ 11 pp
21-7
W1
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Lauzon: 21 sig / 2 TD ·
Chiesa: 30 sig / 1 TD
Joe Lauzon
Michael Chiesa
21
Sig strikes landed
29
55
Sig strikes attempted
71
38
Total strikes landed
48
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
113s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joe Lauzon
29-16
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
W2
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
21-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—