Prelims1
Lightweight
Al Iaquinta vs Rodrigo Damm
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi
·Foxwoods Resort Casino
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Al Iaquinta
Rodrigo Damm
73%
27%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
27
Age
Δ 7y
35
14-8-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
13-10
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Iaquinta: 93 sig / 0 TD ·
Damm: 57 sig / 0 TD
Al Iaquinta
Rodrigo Damm
55
Sig strikes landed
49
137
Sig strikes attempted
114
70
Total strikes landed
65
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
90s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Al Iaquinta
"Raging"
14-8-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
Blue corner
L1
Rodrigo Damm
13-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
L
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—