Prelims1
Middleweight
Rafael Natal vs Chris Camozzi
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi
·Foxwoods Resort Casino
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rafael Natal
Chris Camozzi
59%
41%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
21-10-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
24-14
L2
Current streak
L3
10
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Natal: 36 sig / 2 TD ·
Camozzi: 67 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Natal
Chris Camozzi
45
Sig strikes landed
52
109
Sig strikes attempted
121
63
Total strikes landed
63
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.9
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
183s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
21-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
Blue corner
L3
Chris Camozzi
24-14
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—