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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Chris Beal vs Tateki Matsuda

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi ·Foxwoods Resort Casino
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Chris Beal
Tateki Matsuda
56% 44%
Why
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Beal: 45 sig / 3 TD · Matsuda: 41 sig / 0 TD
Chris Beal
Tateki Matsuda
30
Sig strikes landed
27
70
Sig strikes attempted
60
39
Total strikes landed
34
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
61s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Chris Beal

"Real Deal"
11-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
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Blue corner

Tateki Matsuda

"Tech"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29